Nebraska Senate race shifts to likely Republican: Sabato's Crystal Ball

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election analyst from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, is shifting its rating of Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts’s (R) seat from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican” after independent Dan Osborn's entry into the race.

Sabato’s Crysal Ball associate editor Miles Coleman wrote in an analysis Thursday that Ricketts was “still a clear favorite for a full term,” but he noted Osborn, an industrial mechanic who lost to Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) last cycle by single digits, could benefit from a higher name ID this time around and a difficult midterm environment for Republicans. 

He also noted the state Democratic Party is not looking to put up its own candidate in the race against Ricketts next year.

“Even if we view Ricketts as a tougher opponent than Fischer, one factor in Osborn’s favor this time could be a bluer national environment,” Coleman wrote. 

“In his first campaign, Osborn also distanced himself from the Democratic Party, at least rhetorically, to an extent that other recent independents did not seem willing to—he talked about helping Trump build his much-mentioned border wall, for instance,” he continued. “This is something Osborn will almost certainly have to lean further into now.” 

Yet, Coleman suggested Ricketts would be a more formidable opponent than Fischer, saying Ricketts may be harder for his opponents to define. Ricketts previously served as a two-term governor in the state, while Fischer maintained a lower profile in the Senate.

The Sabato’s Crysal Ball associate editor also noted that in addition to Ricketts’s family wealth, he also notched close to 90,000 more raw votes than the senior senator when both were on the ballot in 2024. 

And while Osborn may have higher name ID this cycle, Coleman suggested that could also be a slight hindrance. 

“Osborn enters the 2026 cycle with higher name recognition than he had two years ago, although we wonder if that comes at the cost of losing the element of surprise—something that seemed like a crucial ingredient in propelling him into contention against Fischer,” Coleman wrote. 

Unlike last cycle, when outside GOP groups had to get involved later on during the cycle, “this time, national Republicans clearly wanted to cover their bases in Nebraska: in May, One Nation, a conservative outside group, began running ads boosting Ricketts,” he wrote. 

Osborn launched his campaign to take on Ricketts this week, contrasting his working-class background with Ricketts’s wealth. Independent candidates have long faced a tough climb to pick off incumbents given the increasingly partisan political environment, and Ricketts may represent Osborn's most formidable test yet.

Republicans, too, are leaning into a similar message they used against him last cycle — that he’s a Democrat in sheep’s clothing. 

Depending on how competitive he makes the race, he could at least force Republicans to spend in a state they otherwise wouldn’t have had to worry about next year.