GOP senators fear Musk-Trump beef spells trouble for midterm election

Senate Republicans fear Elon Musk’s beef with President Trump could become a wild-card factor that could cost them seats in 2026 if Musk follows through on his threat to create a new political party to compete with the GOP.

GOP lawmakers note that third-party candidates have swung presidential and Senate races in the past and worry that Musk’s bid to establish an "America Party" is likely to peel off more Republicans than Democratic voters in key races.

Musk, if he moves forward with his plans, is expected to make reducing the federal debt a key plank of his new party, an issue that traditionally appeals to conservative voters. The tech mogul also has threatened to support primary challenges against self-described Republican fiscal conservatives who voted for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The billionaire created a big political headache for Republicans last month by trashing Trump’s megabill as a “disgusting abomination” and warning it would “destroy millions of jobs in America.”

While GOP lawmakers doubt that America Party candidates could actually win seats in Congress, they worry Musk-backed, third-party candidates could play spoiler roles and swing close races to Democrats.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) warned that Musk could cost Republicans unified control of the White House and Congress, which they used this year to cut taxes, slash Medicaid spending and beef up border security, among other accomplishments.

Asked about Musk’s formation of the America Party, Johnson offered a blunt answer: “If he wants to ensure never returning to a prepandemic level of spending, never balancing our budget, that would be a good thing to do.”

In other words, Johnson thinks that Musk will wind up imperiling Republican candidates and future control of policymaking.

“He’d be splitting our party,” he said. “We actually have some people concerned about the deficit, Democrats don’t.”

Johnson said it’s “obvious” that Musk’s political party would hurt Republicans more than Democrats and he warned that fellow Republicans need to take the debt more seriously ahead of the midterm election.

“We better get our act together in terms of reducing spending in our party,” he said.

A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,265 registered voters nationwide last month found that 62 percent of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Musk while 29 percent of independents and only 3 percent of Democrats viewed him favorably.

Third-party candidates have bedeviled Republicans in key Senate races in the past, notably in Montana, where some Republicans blamed Libertarians Rick Breckenridge and Dan Cox for helping former Sen. Jon Tester (D) win reelection in 2018 and 2012.

Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson and America First Party candidate Thomas Leager may have cost Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde a potential win over Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in the 2024 Wisconsin Senate race.  

Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), a former chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said third-party candidates have “affected the outcomes of elections” but noted “the third party has never become the majority party.”

He said the “personal nature” of the recent feuding between Musk and Trump could make it seem to many voters that Musk’s push for a new party is “more a personal vendetta than a political charge.”  

Moran said it’s something to worry about because “politics is an ever-changing sea of voters, and one needs to pay attention to trends.

“There are opportunities for people to capture the voters in ways that you may not even think of today,” he said.

While third-party candidates have often failed to break out of single-digit support on Election Day, Musk’s ability to pour tens of millions of dollars — or hundreds of millions of dollars — into a race or an election could make Musk-backed candidates instantly formidable.

“Money is an important factor. Elon Musk has the capability of funding and financing campaigns and candidates. It’s one of the things that challengers often are lacking, it’s the resources necessary to get their message out to become known."

“Money is often a determining factor in accomplishing that,” he said.

Musk spent more than $290 million on the 2024 election, according to records filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R), whose North Carolina Senate seat is rated a “toss-up” in 2026, said third-party candidacies tend to hurt Republicans.

“Every time this has been tried before, it generally, in most cases, it has harmed Republican outcomes,” he said.

He said Musk would be better off working within the two-party system to bring about the changes he wants.

A Republican senator who requested anonymity said Musk could be “like a Ross Perot and be a spoiler in the election.” Perot in 1992 ran as an independent candidate and won 19 percent of the vote. Some Republicans blamed him for helping former President Clinton win Georgia, Ohio and Montana, among other states.

The Republican said Musk’s anger at Trump is misplaced and that he’s likely acting out of frustration over his tumultuous stint as a special government employee in the Trump administration.

“I think he had unrealistic expectations about what government can do and how fast it can move when you have a government the size of our federal government,” the senator added, trying to explain why Musk now wants to take on Trump and the Republican Party.

Musk last month threatened to support primary challenges against Republicans who ran for office on pledges to cut federal deficits and then voted last week for Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.”

He said they should “hang their head in shame” and vowed: “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) on Wednesday acknowledged that Musk-backed candidates could siphon votes away from Republicans if he gets the America Party going. But he argued that the political effect is hard to predict and that Democrats might lose votes as well.

“Could it? Sure,” Thune said regarding whether Musk could have an impact on Senate races next year. “We’ve seen that in history where third parties have affected results in national campaigns, but my assumption is he probably draws some [votes] from both.

“I think there are a lot of frustrated Democrats out there who think their party has moved too far to the left. So, we’ll see. It’s too early to tell, but it’s a free country,” he said.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who faces a competitive primary next year, wasn’t eager to chat about Musk’s potential role in Senate races, only observing that Musk is free to do what he wants.

“It’s a free country. It wouldn’t be the first, I guess we had a third-party [candidate] when Ross Perot ran,” he said. “He doesn’t need permission from anybody to do it.”

Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist, said Musk could have an outsized impact on future control of Congress by focusing on a handful of key Senate and House races.

“He could recruit people under the American Party and totally fund them, and they’re going to be competitive,” he said.

“If Elon Musk’s goal is to make Trump pay, all he has to do is target 15 House races, a half-dozen Senate races — spend $30 million on each Senate race, $15 million on each House race, he can take both the House and the Senate,” he said, arguing that well-funded candidates in key states can affect the outcome of races if not win them outright.

Jarding said “if you have money, you can be competitive.”

He said that if Musk-backed third-party candidates win seats, they could become a swing bloc in the narrowly divided House.

“This guy can fundamentally change this next election, I don’t care what he calls his party. He just has to write a check,” he said.