The Big Story 

Republican lawmakers fear Washington may be headed for a government shutdown later this year after two bruising fights over President Trump’s "big, beautiful bill" and a $9 billion rescissions package created bad blood on Capitol Hill.

© Greg Nash

After six months of bitter partisan fighting, Republicans will now need cooperation from Democrats to keep the government funded, and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) is warning GOP colleagues not to expect “business as usual.”

One senior Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee put the chances of a shutdown in the fall at “a real square 50-50.”

Senate Republicans familiar with Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-S.D.) plans say he hopes to bring a package of appropriations bills to the Senate floor the week before the August recess.

The lawmaker warned that if the White House sends up another rescissions package, “it will be met with mixed results.”

“I agree with John Thune that we need to get to a regular appropriations process, and I think it gets in the way of that. So the timing, if they do another one, is going to have to be better timed and [have] much more detail,” the senator said, referring to Thune.

Asked whether there’s support in his conference to take up another rescissions package, Thune said: “We’ll see what the future holds, but I think right now the goal is to get into the appropriations process.”

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton has more here.

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Tax Watch 

Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ will cost $3.4T over about a decade: CBO

The “big, beautiful bill” that President Trump signed into law earlier this month will add nearly $3.4 trillion to the nation’s deficits over roughly the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office estimated in a report Monday.

The analysis released by the nonpartisan budget scorekeeper projected the bill would add $3.394 trillion to the nation’s deficits from 2025 to 2034. 

A lion’s share of the cost comes from the plan’s tax provisions — a core element of the bill — which are estimated to decrease revenues by more than $4 trillion into 2034, while also cutting federal dollars for social programs like Medicaid and food stamps.

The biggest tax cuts in the bill are extensions of cuts first passed in 2017. They include a reduction of the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent, as well as reductions of most individual income tax rates.

Major business tax provisions in the law other than the lower corporate rate include a 20-percent deduction for businesses like S-corps and LLCs, which pass their tax liability onto their owners.

The CBO also estimated Monday that the overall plan, which includes major changes to Medicaid, would lead to an additional 10 million people without health insurance in 2034.

The Hill’s Aris Folley and Tobias Burns has more here.

Tax Watch is a regular feature focused on the fight over tax reform and extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts this year. Email a tip

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